We must take immediate businesslike action to limit climate change to
2 degrees C, not for ourselves, but for future generations.
- Richard McNeall
Climate Facts
CO2 14,472m3 @ 1.85kg/m3 (19OC) = 26.8T (Calculation R.McNeall)
1) What is the science of Climate Change ?
Fortunately in 1988, the
international communityestablished the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -IPCCwww.ipcc.chto do regular
expert peer-reviewed and government-reviewed assesments of the state of Climate Change. These come out about every 5 years, with the much-publicised Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coming out in 4 stages throughout 2007.
Some conclusions quoted from this 2007 assessment are:
Very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of
warming.
Changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitationamounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including
droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of
tropical cyclones.
Significant
loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites including the Great Barrier Reefand Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, southwest Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the
alpine areas.
Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia.
Source: Stern Review - reproduced under the terms of the Click-Use Licence.
Some of Stern's quoted conclusions are:
Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a
scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be
difficult or impossible to reverse these changes.
Rich countries taking responsibility for emissions reductions of 60-80%from 1990 levels by 2050. Again this is consistent with the 60-80% of the European Commission. For Australia, the CSIRO submission points to 60-90%, presumably on the basis of our poor starting point below.
Stabilisation of
greenhouse gases at levels of 500-550ppm CO2e will cost, on average, around
1% of annual global GDP by 2050. This is significant, but is fully consistent with continued growth and development, in contrast with unabated climate change, which will eventually pose significant threats to growth.
3) How is Australia going ?
Australia is not going very well.
We are the worst emitter at 26.8 tonnes per person (2004) including land use and forestry. Here is the list for Kyoto countries ...
And our emissions are growing faster than most other developed countries ! As a special exception, our Kyoto target is for an 8% increase on 1990, which we might just make. But there is a catch. Kyoto's base year of 1990 was our peak land-clearing year which gave us a head-start. Looking at the UNFCCC return (excluding land use & forestry), our underlying emissions have increased by 25.1% since 1990, one of the worst results in a period when many industrialised countries are starting to make real reductions.
4) How can we help as individuals ?
A good place to start is the
Cool It site of Australian Greenhouse Office www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/index.html which gives practical advice on how to minimise our personal emissions
.
